Chance of at least one hit
Each reroll is independent, so the chance of rolling your target at least once across n rerolls is 1 − (1 − p)n, where p is the race's drop rate. For example, a 1% race over 100 rerolls gives 1 − 0.99100 ≈ 63%.
This Wizard Alchemy reroll calculator estimates your chance of rolling a target race based on how many Race Rerolls you spend. Pick a race, enter a reroll count, and see your odds of getting it at least once — plus how many rerolls it takes on average. The Wizard Alchemy reroll calculator uses the community drop rates for every race, so you can plan a realistic reroll budget before you spend a single token instead of rolling blindly and hoping for a lucky result.
Note: Stellar Ambassador is shown at 4% per most sources, but if it shares the Epic tier with Summoner it may be closer to 2%. Summoner's true rate is unconfirmed and shown as an estimate.
The math behind the Wizard Alchemy reroll calculator is simple probability, but it helps to understand what the numbers actually mean before you spend rerolls.
Each reroll is independent, so the chance of rolling your target at least once across n rerolls is 1 − (1 − p)n, where p is the race's drop rate. For example, a 1% race over 100 rerolls gives 1 − 0.99100 ≈ 63%.
On average it takes about 1 ÷ p rerolls to hit a target once. That is roughly 100 rerolls for a 1% race, 25 for a 4% race, and 30 for a 3.33% race. Averages are not guarantees — variance is real.
These are the community-tracked drop rates the calculator uses. The game does not publish exact odds, and the tier rates do not add up to exactly 100%, so treat them as estimates.
| Race | Rarity | Drop Rate | Avg. rerolls to hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thestrals / Night Knight | Legendary | 1% | ~100 |
| Stellar Ambassador | Epic | ~4% | ~25 |
| Summoner | Epic | ~2% (estimate) | ~50 |
| Ice Crystal | Epic | 2.5% | ~40 |
| Fiendish Demon | Epic | 2.5% | ~40 |
| Death Eater | Rare | 3.33% | ~30 |
| Undead | Rare | 3.33% | ~30 |
| Werewolf | Rare | 3.33% | ~30 |
| Elf | Uncommon | 7.5% | ~13 |
| Tree Spirit | Uncommon | 7.5% | ~13 |
| Human | Common | 25% | ~4 |
Source note: per-race figures are derived from the published rarity-tier percentages. Because those tiers do not sum to 100%, and the Summoner rate is unconfirmed, all values are best-effort estimates.
The calculator is only useful if you have rerolls to spend. Here is how to stock up before you start chasing a rare race.
Redeem 100KMEMBERS (10), 20kMembers (5), and 17kCCU (5) for 20 free Race Rerolls.
EventsThe event shop sells rerolls for 50 Spirit Leaves each, plus 3 from the login track.
Should I reroll?Not sure if your current race is worth keeping? Use the keep-or-reroll helper before spending.
To show how the Wizard Alchemy reroll calculator behaves, here are a few common scenarios players run into when chasing a race.
With the 20 free rerolls from codes against the 1% Thestrals rate, the reroll calculator returns about an 18% chance. That is not great odds for a 1% race, which is why most players settle for an A or S tier race first.
At the listed 4% rate, the Wizard Alchemy reroll calculator shows roughly an 87% chance of rolling Stellar Ambassador within 50 rerolls. A flexible S-tier race like this is a realistic goal for a patient player.
The calculator shows about a 63% chance of a 1% race over 100 rerolls. To reach a 90% chance you need roughly 230 rerolls — a reminder that rare races take real investment.
The Wizard Alchemy reroll calculator gives a probability, not a promise. A 63% chance still fails 37% of the time, and a 90% chance still fails one time in ten. Use the calculator to set a realistic reroll budget, decide your stopping point, and avoid burning every reroll chasing a race that the odds say you may not hit.
The Wizard Alchemy reroll calculator is most useful alongside a clear plan. These tips help you spend rerolls wisely.
Before you start, use the calculator to pick a reroll budget you are comfortable with, then commit to keeping any race at or above your target tier once you hit it. This stops you from rerolling past a great race while chasing a perfect one.
Balance patches can change which race is strongest. Keeping two or three rerolls in reserve lets you adapt after an update without farming codes again. Re-run the calculator whenever the drop rates are adjusted.
Quick answers about reroll odds and how to use this calculator.
Pick a target race and a number of rerolls. The calculator applies the formula 1 − (1 − p)n, where p is the race drop rate and n is your reroll count, to estimate your chance of rolling that race at least once.
Thestrals (Night Knight) has a 1% drop rate, so it averages about 100 rerolls. With 100 rerolls you have roughly a 63% chance of rolling it at least once, and you would need about 230 rerolls for a 90% chance.
No. The game does not publish exact per-race odds and the community tier rates do not sum to 100%. The Summoner rate is also unconfirmed. Treat the calculator as a planning guide, not a guarantee.
Redeem codes (100KMEMBERS, 20kMembers, 17kCCU), claim Druid Event rewards, or buy rerolls with Robux. See the codes and events pages for current totals.
Set a stopping target first. Any A or S tier race is a reasonable goal. Chasing a 1% race can burn through dozens of rerolls, so decide your cutoff before you start and keep a few rerolls in reserve.